Hurricane Lee Anticipated to Swiftly Strengthen in the Unusually Warm Atlantic as It Nears the Caribbean

Hurricane Lee is poised for rapid intensification in the warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday, with the likelihood of reaching major hurricane status by early Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

As of early Thursday, this Category 1 storm boasts maximum sustained winds of 80 mph, positioned approximately 965 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, according to the National Hurricane Center’s latest update at 5 a.m. on Thursday.

The storm is expected to reach its peak strength over the weekend, remaining a significant threat over the southwestern Atlantic into early next week.

There is growing confidence that the center of Hurricane Lee will track north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend and early next week. This raises the potential for tropical storm conditions on some of these islands during the weekend.

Swells generated by Hurricane Lee are anticipated to impact portions of the Lesser Antilles on Friday, as well as the British and US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda over the weekend. These swells pose a life-threatening risk of surf and rip currents.

While it remains uncertain whether this system will directly affect the US mainland, there is a possibility of dangerous surf and rip currents along the Eastern Seaboard even if the hurricane remains offshore.

Notably, the storm underwent rapid strengthening on Wednesday, with its sustained winds intensifying by 35 mph within 24 hours of its formation as a tropical depression on Tuesday morning. Further rapid intensification is expected to commence on Thursday, with Hurricane Lee projected to attain Category 3 status by Friday morning and possibly reaching Category 4 strength by Friday evening.

The forecasted track leads Hurricane Lee across some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic Ocean and through relatively calm upper-level wind conditions, creating an environment conducive for significant intensification.

According to Jason Dunion, director of NOAA’s Hurricane Field Program, all the necessary conditions are in place for the storm to undergo substantial intensification.

While the Atlantic waters are not as warm as the Gulf of Mexico, where Hurricane Idalia formed last week, sea-surface temperatures along Hurricane Lee’s projected path in the Atlantic remain about 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal after experiencing record-breaking levels this summer, as reported by David Zierden, Florida’s state climatologist.

David Zierden mentioned, “For Hurricane Lee to reach Category 4 or 5 intensity, the environmental conditions have to be nearly perfect, and it appears that is the forecast for Lee.”

Lee’s maximum forecasted intensity of 150 mph matches the strongest storm in the Atlantic basin this season, Hurricane Franklin, and surpasses any storms thus far in the eastern Pacific. If Hurricane Lee’s winds exceed 150 mph, it will become the most potent hurricane in either basin this year, coming just 7 mph short of Category 5 status.

Jason Dunion remarked, “This storm certainly has the potential to become a Category 5,” adding that no significant hindrances to the storm’s development are anticipated in its path leading up to the weekend.

The last Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin was Hurricane Ian in 2022. Prior to that, Hurricanes Dorian and Lorenzo in 2019 were the most recent storms to achieve this level of intensity. Since 1924, there have been only 39 Category 5 hurricanes, according to data from NOAA.